Revenge, hometown, birthday and rivalry games, each with a matchup grade, updated every day.
The backstory behind every slate.
Same idea for baseball.
The backstory behind every week.
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Forecasts come from Open-Meteo and are re-pulled with every update. They change, especially more than three days out. Wind and cold are the only conditions that adjust our NFL projections (both were backtested on past games); rain, humidity and cloud are shown for context. Wind direction is the way the wind blows toward on the field, from the weather model at stadium coordinates. We don't yet know each stadium's orientation, so we can't say whether it helps or hurts a given offense.
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Matchup grades: green = this defense gives up a lot of that stat to this position, yellow = average, red = tough. #1 means it gives up the most in the league. Built from this season’s box scores, so early-season samples are small. Projections are simulated 1,000 times and locked at tip-off or kickoff. NBA: this season’s games with his current team lead (earlier seasons count a quarter as much), expected minutes times his per-minute rate, with a small nudge for the opponent’s defense. Fewer than 3 games this season with his team means no projection. NFL: his recent games with his current team, the opponent’s defense and the kickoff forecast. Players with very little recent playing time get none. Small numbers are the middle 80% of outcomes. Estimates only, not betting advice.